 |
| Colin Singer |
Trudeau, a steadfast advocate of high immigration levels, was instrumental in positioning Canada as a global leader in welcoming immigrants, starting with 65,000 Syrian refugees between 2016 and 2018. Post-pandemic, Canada’s population grew from 38 million to 41.5 million, with temporary residents accounting for 3 million of that number. Economists blame these policies for high inflation and housing shortages in Toronto and Vancouver. Public support for high immigration levels have dramatically flipped, where 58 per cent of Canadians now believe there are too many immigrants being admitted to Canada. In the face of these developments, the Liberal government has recently scaled back immigration annual levels on both permanent and temporary immigrants.
Trudeau’s immigration legacy
Under Trudeau’s leadership, Canada set ambitious immigration targets, welcoming over 450,000 newcomers annually in recent years. The government’s policies emphasized economic immigration through programs like Express Entry, the Provincial Nominee Program, and the Start-Up Visa. Trudeau’s administration also expanded family reunification and refugee resettlement initiatives, positioning Canada as a beacon of hope for many around the world.
Recent policy shift
In response to dwindling public support, Trudeau’s government announced a 20 per cent reduction in immigration levels for 2025, shortly before his resignation. This move, seen as an attempt to address growing domestic pressures, marked a departure from his earlier stance. Critics argue that the cutback was too little, too late, and failed to fully address public concerns, leaving the issue as a major point of contention for his successor.
Public sentiment and its evolution
When Trudeau took office in 2016, Canadians overwhelmingly supported immigration, viewing it as a cornerstone of the nation’s identity and economic strategy. However, this enthusiasm waned over time as the realities of rapid population growth became evident. Rising rents, longer wait times for health-care services, and urban congestion fueled a sense of frustration among many Canadians. This shift in sentiment underscores the challenges any future leader will face in balancing economic needs with public opinion.
Trudeau’s resignation leaves Canada’s immigration policy at a crossroads. Several critical legislative initiatives are now in limbo, with significant implications for various immigration pathways. Here’s a look at what’s likely to unfold in the coming months:
Legislative fallout: Bill C-71
One casualty of Trudeau’s resignation is the Bill C-71 (Lost Canadians Bill), a citizenship-focused initiative that proposes extending citizenship by descent beyond the first generation, allowing those born outside Canada to a Canadian parent before the legislation’s enactment to obtain citizenship. It addresses instances of individuals excluded from citizenship such as second and subsequent generations like diplomatic and military personnel, and descendants of Canadians who moved abroad, from claiming citizenship, even if they have significant ties to Canada.
While the bill aims to resolve specific gaps, it is controversial for potentially granting citizenship to an estimated 200,000 affected individuals from beyond its intended original scope. With Trudeau’s departure, this bill falls, leaving many intending applicants in limbo. The shelving of this bill will become a symbol of a broader shift away from Trudeau’s “doors wide open” immigration policies.
Caregiver Program reforms stalled
The Caregiver Program, long criticized for its inefficiencies, was poised for significant revisions under Trudeau’s government. Since its inception in 1978, caregivers have faced challenges transitioning to permanent residence, with promises of reform rarely materializing. Currently, a backlog of approximately 37,000 applicants awaits resolution under pilot programs that ended in June 2024. Trudeau’s resignation has effectively halted any hope of planned changes for new programs, leaving thousands of caregivers and their supporting employers in a state of limbo leading to uncertainty and frustration.
Tightening of temporary resident programs
Trudeau’s tenure saw an expansion of temporary resident programs, including the Post-Graduate Work Program and open work permits for spouses. However, these programs became marred by reports of fraud, including cases of fraudulent LMIA (Labour Market Impact Assessments) routinely being sold for $50,000 and students entering Canada on visas without attending classes at approved designated learning institutions located in strip malls. With Trudeau’s resignation, these “open-door” policies are being shuttered. Expect continued tightening of rules, particularly for temporary workers and international students, signaling the end of some controversial programs that resulted in widespread abuse.
Proposed reforms to the refugee system
In November 2024, Immigration Minister Marc Miller announced plans to reform Canada’s refugee system, aiming to expedite the refusal of asylum claims deemed unlikely to succeed. The backlog of refugee claimants has ballooned to 260,000 asylum applications awaiting hearings. This has largely been fueled by the Canadian government’s implementation of measures to reduce temporary immigration, including capping international students and temporary residents.
Governance delays: What’s next?
Canada is entering a period of political uncertainty. With Parliament prorogued until March 2025, new legislative action cannot occur. An election is anticipated by May, with a new conservative government likely taking office by June. However, the parliamentary summer break means the process of governing will unlikely resume before late Q3 2025. This will stall crucial policy reforms, leaving the immigration portfolio in a holding pattern for most of 2025.
A shift in immigration priorities
A conservative-led government is expected to take a more cautious approach to immigration, emphasizing stricter controls and addressing public concerns over infrastructure strain and integration. Expect a focus on past terminologies, related to ensuring that our immigration levels can meet the country’s capacity to support newcomers. This approach aims to balance the benefits of immigration with the practical challenges of housing, health care and availability of employment for Canadians. What remains to be seen is whether labour groups will succeed in pressuring the new leadership to maintain the planned reduced levels tabled by the Liberals in Parliament in November 2024, or whether deeper cuts will be favoured.
Key policy considerations for the next leader
- Balancing economic needs and public opinion: The next leader will need to carefully navigate the tension between the economic benefits of immigration and the growing public unease. Transparent communication and policies that demonstrate tangible benefits to Canadians will be crucial.
- Enhancing newcomer integration: Investments in housing, health care, and language training will be essential to ensure successful newcomer integration and address public concerns about infrastructure strain.
- Targeted immigration programs: Expanding programs that address specific labour market needs, such as the Global Talent Stream and the Provincial Nominee Program, could help align immigration levels with economic priorities.
- Addressing housing and infrastructure: Collaborative efforts between federal, provincial and municipal governments will be needed to tackle housing shortages and infrastructure challenges exacerbated by rapid population growth.
Future outlook
Trudeau’s resignation represents a pivotal moment for Canada’s immigration policies. As the nation prepares for new leadership, the immigration file will remain a central issue, reflecting both its economic importance and its impact on public sentiment. The next government will need to strike a delicate balance between addressing ongoing labour shortages, maintaining Canada’s reputation as an immigrant-friendly nation and addressing the legitimate concerns of its citizens.
Sustainable path forward
The impact of Justin Trudeau’s resignation on Canada’s immigration policy will depend largely on the vision and approach of his successor. While Trudeau’s legacy highlights the economic and social benefits of immigration, the challenges that emerged during his tenure underscore the need for a more balanced approach. By addressing public concerns and investing in infrastructure and integration, Canada’s next leader has the opportunity to chart a sustainable path forward for immigration.
Colin R. Singer is immigration counsel for www.immigration.ca. He can be reached via Twitter: @immigrationca.
The opinions expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the author’s firm, its clients, LexisNexis Canada, Law360 Canada or any of its or their respective affiliates. This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal advice.
Interested in writing for us? To learn more about how you can add your voice to Law360 Canada, contact Analysis Editor Richard Skinulis at Richard.Skinulis@lexisnexis.ca or call 437-828-6772.