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| Tega Adjara |
One of the most significant potential impacts of a second Trump presidency pertains to immigration policy. In 2020, a Canadian Federal Court ruled that while it is not within the court’s jurisdiction to pass judgment on the U.S. asylum system, the Safe Third Country Agreement between Canada and the United States no longer met the criteria of a “safe third country.” The ruling found that the agreement violated the constitutional right to life, liberty and security of the person, as guaranteed by s. 7 of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. This judgment stemmed from the Trump administration’s hostile immigration policies, which were criticized internationally for their harsh treatment of asylum seekers. During that period, Canada saw an influx of refugees crossing into the country via irregular routes, such as Roxham Road, in order to bypass the restrictions of the Safe Third Country Agreement.
If Trump were to return to the White House, it is highly likely that his stringent immigration policies would be reinstated. This could compel Canadian courts and lawmakers to revisit their stance on whether the United States remains a “safe” country for refugees. Should Trump’s policies once again push the United States toward a more exclusionary stance on immigration, Canada could face renewed pressure to reassess its refugee policies and border agreements. This may lead to an increase in asylum seekers entering Canada, both from the United States and from other countries, seeking refuge from the harsher conditions brought on by U.S. immigration reforms.
Another potential cross-border issue that may arise under the Trump administration is the migration of U.S. citizens to Canada for health-care services, particularly for reproductive health services, including abortion. The U.S. Supreme Court’s 2022 decision to overturn Roe v. Wade has already led to significant rollbacks in abortion access across many U.S. states. Many of the most restrictive anti-abortion laws are concentrated in states near the Canadian border, prompting a growing number of American women to seek these services across the border in Canada, where abortion remains legal and accessible under the precedent set by R. v. Morgentaler, [1988] S.C.J. No. 1, in 1988.
A continuation of Trump’s influence on U.S. judicial appointments and policies could exacerbate this trend, leading to a rise in “medical tourism” for abortions and other health-care services. This would have direct implications for Canadian health care, especially in border provinces like Ontario and British Columbia. An influx of American patients could strain Canada’s health-care system, potentially leading to difficult decisions regarding resource allocation and funding. Hospitals may need to reconsider their policies regarding the treatment of foreign nationals, raising ethical questions about how to balance the needs of Canadian citizens with those of incoming patients from the United States.
Beyond the immediate issues of immigration and health care, a Trump victory would likely have far-reaching consequences for the economic relationship between Canada and the United States, which has long been governed by treaties such as the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and its successor, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Upon taking office in 2017, Trump swiftly sought to renegotiate NAFTA, which he argued was unfavourable to U.S. workers and industries. This renegotiation led to the creation of USMCA, which introduced new provisions related to labour rights, environmental standards and digital trade. While Canada successfully secured some protections during these negotiations, the process underscored the unpredictability and volatility of Trump’s trade policy.
A second Trump term could bring further disruption to the trade relationship between the two countries. Trump has repeatedly demonstrated a willingness to disrupt longstanding agreements and could seek to renegotiate USMCA once again or pursue even more protectionist policies designed to favour U.S. industries at the expense of Canadian economic interests. This uncertainty could significantly impact key Canadian sectors, including manufacturing, agriculture and technology, all of which are heavily intertwined with the U.S. economy. Moreover, Trump’s skepticism toward multilateral organizations such as NATO and his broader stance on international alliances could lead to further geopolitical shifts, influencing not only Canada’s economic ties with the United States but also its defence policies and global trade relationships.
In summary, while every U.S. election carries significant implications for Canada, a 2024 victory by Donald Trump could herald profound changes across multiple areas of Canadian law and policy. The potential revisiting of the Safe Third Country Agreement, the anticipated rise in U.S. medical tourists seeking abortions and the uncertain future of trade relations under USMCA are just a few of the critical challenges that Canada may face. As both nations prepare for the upcoming election, Canadian policymakers must remain vigilant, ready to adapt to the evolving political landscape and prepared to safeguard the nation’s interests in the face of potentially disruptive shifts in U.S. governance.
After completing his LLB at the University of East London, Tega Adjara pursued a specialized LLM in international law and the global economy. Adjara obtained a certification in leadership and management from the London School of Economics (LSE), then ventured to Canada to complete another LLM program at Osgoode Hall. Currently, he is going through the Ontario licensing program.
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